America needs a balanced transportation system, not only in deference to consumer preferences, but also for a number of good policy reasons. One of those, as we learned on 9/11, is national security. There is also an important environmental component.
The Christian Science Monitor asks a probing question in a major report, “Must we quit flying to save the planet?” Air carriers are rightly concerned now that the spotlight of accountability has begun to shine. There are many studies under way to improve airplane emissions, but the need is staggering.
The U.N. International Panel on Climate Change says perennial improvements have made planes 70 percent more efficient than they were 40 years ago. An additional 40 to 50 percent improvement can be expected in the next three decades, the panel says.
The problem, climate experts say, is that current projections indicate air travel will grow 400 percent in the same period.
In America, one can expect policy to be set by industrial polluters, to the exclusion of travelers and other mere inhabitants of planet earth. There are other models developing in the industrialized world.
Given the limited prospects for a technological solution, a growing body of opinion is arguing for efforts to manage demand for air travel. “What matters is the next 10 to 15 years, and technology can do very little in that time frame,” said Kevin Anderson, of Britain’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. “The principal issue is to reduce the rate of growth of air travel.”
Experts point to several options. Europe plans to include aviation in its emissions-trading plan starting in 2011. The hope is to show the rest of the world, chiefly China and India, where aviation growth is surging, that concerted efforts can make a difference.
Airlines will receive a limited number of carbon-dioxide permits that can be traded; top polluters will have to buy additional permits, hurting their bottom line. The idea is to give airlines incentive to operate cleaner aircraft.
But experts note that caps will be set fairly high, weakening the imperative, and ticket prices are expected to rise only slightly, if that. Thus, consumer behavior may be little affected.
An alternative is direct taxation. John Stewart, chairman of AirportWatch, a British movement opposed to aviation growth, said that without a radical price change, it will be impossible to change the mind-set of a generation that thinks little of hopping cheap flights for weekend pursuits. Some people have lobbied for cigarette-style health warnings on ads for air travel, but Stewart argues that the only way to change behavior is to hit the pocketbook.
He noted that 45 percent of all flights in Europe are less than 310 miles. “The French and Germans are showing that if you invest in good railways, you can persuade people to travel by rail and not by air.”
America has an advantage. There are no true high speed rail corridors existing here, so they can be developed both on the conventional rail lines and true high speed routes. Both can be operated into airports, providing direct connections to longer flights
Filed under: Passenger Rail Transportatio Policy
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